All guides— Fresh Bull
The Fresh Bull
The flagship signal — the day institutional-size volume first shows up in a coin.
What is a Fresh Bull?
Most days, a coin's volume is crowd noise. A Fresh Bull is the day that changes: price breaks up on more than double the biggest volume day of the previous 10 days, and holds its gains into the close. Moves of that size are rarely retail — they are the footprint of large, deliberate buying.
Because it needs such an extreme volume expansion, the signal is rare by design. It fires on about 0.88% of coin-days — roughly one bar in 114. Bitcoin has printed exactly 4 since 2023 — 2 Apr 2019 and 27 Jul 2020 and 6 Nov 2024 and 19 Aug 2026 — and the second is only days old. On smaller coins it marks the days worth putting on a watchlist.
An up day
The coin closes higher than it opened — demand won the session.
More than 2× the recent peak
The day's volume is more than double the biggest single volume day of the previous 10 days. Not above average — more than twice the recent maximum.
Strong close
The close finishes in the top half of the day's range (DCR ≥ 50) — buyers stayed in control into the close, not a fade.
All three must hold on the same completed daily candle. A coin needs at least 30 daily bars of history before the screener evaluates it at all, so a brand-new listing cannot print a Fresh Bull in its first month. And because a Fresh Bull needs more than 2× the maximum of every prior bar, while a Pocket Pivot only needs to beat the biggest down day, every Fresh Bull is also a Pocket Pivot — never the other way round. When both fire, the Fresh Bull badge takes precedence.
Why volume, and why “fresh”
Price can be pushed around by a small order in a thin book. Volume cannot: a large buyer has to absorb everything on offer, and that leaves a mark on the chart that is hard to fake. Every serious volume filter is a variation on the same question — how much bigger was today than normal?
Different traditions answer it differently. The simplest compare today against an average (2× or 3× the 10/20/50-day mean). Pocket Pivots (Morales & Kacher) compare an up day against the heaviest down day of the last 10. Bull Snorts (Oliver Kell) want 3× the average volume. The Fresh Bull takes the strictest version: more than twice the single biggest day of the previous 10.
That choice is what puts the “fresh” in Fresh Bull, and it is the whole point of the pattern. Institutional buying is rarely one day — it is a first day followed by follow-through. The first day is where the entry is; the days after it are where you ride, not where you enter. Comparing against the previous maximum rather than the average enforces that automatically: once a coin prints one huge day, the bar for the next one doubles relative to it, so the signal cannot repeat every session inside an ongoing run. A Fresh Bull is, by construction, the first institutional-size day after a quiet stretch.
Read the follow-through, don't chase it
Big volume days that arrive after a Fresh Bull are confirmation that the original buyer is being joined, and they are why the move goes anywhere at all. They are not fresh entries. If you find yourself buying the fourth heavy day of a run because the volume looks impressive, you are buying the follow-through, not the footprint.
The area of interest
A Fresh Bull is not itself a trade. What the day leaves behind is a level — and more precisely a band: the range between the Fresh Bull day's high and close. That band is where the large buyer showed their hand, so it is called the area of interest.
The logic is about endorsement. If a buyer stepped in and pushed the coin to a high of 105, the only evidence that anyone else agrees is a later close above 105. Until that happens you have one buyer's opinion and nothing more. Once it happens, the same band tends to work in reverse: old resistance becomes the level price bounces off on the way back down.
The width of the band matters as much as the level. A narrow band means the buyer held almost everything they took — the close finished right under the high, and the trigger is a short distance away. A wide band means most of the day was handed back before the close, and price now has to climb a long way just to get to your entry. That intuition turns out to be the single best predictor of what happens next; the numbers are further down.
On the Screener the band is what Away from FB Day High % measures: negative means price is still below the level, positive means it has cleared it.
The lifecycle
A Fresh Bull is not a one-day event — the screener tracks what price does around the FB High for the next 30 days.
The signal day itself. Its high becomes the reference level for everything that follows: the FB High. From here the screener tracks Days since FB and Away from FB Day High %.
Price rests just below the FB High without giving the level up. A tight, quiet pause under the trigger is the constructive state: it means nobody is dumping into the buyer, and your stop is close by. Filter: FB Pause Move.
The trigger. Not an intraday poke through the level, a close above it. Intraday, this fires an FB Breakouts Today alert on the Realtime Alerts page the moment it happens.
Price has cleared the FB High and is holding just above it. Old resistance is acting as support, which is the sign the move is being accepted rather than sold. Filter: FB Support.
That is the shape above, bar by bar.
- Day 0. Up 8.9% to 75,572 on 2.08× the previous 10-day peak, DCR 88. The area of interest is only 1.1% wide.
- Day 1 — the pause. Closes 75,858, 0.7% below the FB High, on 0.43× the peak volume. Quiet, tight, nobody selling into the level.
- Day 2 — the trigger. Closes 76,510, above 76,400 — on the lowest volume of the week. A quiet breakout is not a weak one.
- Day 3 — support. Closes 76,677, holding 0.4% above the level on 0.16× volume. Old resistance is now the floor.
- Then the follow-through. 80,370, then 88,648 — +16% from the breakout close inside three sessions, and the marked move is where it reached by the end of the window.
The two filters are deliberately exclusive: FB Pause Move needs price below the level (−5% up to but not including 0%), FB Support needs it above (above 0% up to +5%). Pause Move is available from day 2, FB Support from day 3.
The three setups
Every Fresh Bull becomes one of three things. They need different entries and carry very different risk, so it is worth knowing which one you are looking at. Each one below is a real example.
A · Move without a pause
hardest to act onThe coin never comes back. It prints the Fresh Bull and keeps going, so there is no quiet retest to buy and no nearby stop. These only sustain when a real catalyst is driving them — a major-exchange listing, a token burn or supply unlock clearing, a mainnet or upgrade going live, a funding round or partnership, or the coin's whole narrative rotating into favour. Without one you cannot tell a continuation from a blow-off in advance, and the odds are the worst of the three.
Bitcoin's 19 Aug 2026 Fresh Bull is this setup, and it is only the latest it has printed since 2023. The candle is almost identical to 6 Nov 2024 — 8.9% versus 7.1%, DCR 88 versus 89, 2.08× versus 2.04× — but where 2024 paused a day and let you in, this one closed above 70,000 the very next session and kept going.
Scan: Days since FB slider set to 0–0 for today's Fresh Bulls. The rest is qualitative — check the chart and the news before you touch it.
Why this one is a warning, not a win
It is tempting to read a textbook Fresh Bull on the biggest coin in the market as a trade you missed. Read it the other way. By this page's own rules there was no good entry: the close above the level came in a single session with no pause to define risk against, and by 22 Aug 2026 price sat 10.1% above the Fresh Bull high — past the point where chasing makes sense, with the nearest sensible stop far below. A pattern firing correctly and a trade being available are different things.
B · Fresh Bull → pause → move
FB Pause MoveThe classic, and the only one of the three that hands you a defined risk. After the Fresh Bull, price goes quiet just below the FB High — small candles, shrinking volume, no one dumping. Your entry is the close above the level and your stop is under the pause range, so you know what being wrong costs before you commit. Most useful pauses are short: the median wait from Fresh Bull to the breakout close is 3 days, and 78% of those that ever trigger do so within 10.
If the pause runs past a week, the 10 EMA catches up to price from below. The bounce off it is the alternative entry, and it usually gives a tighter stop than waiting for the breakout close.
Scan: FB Pause Move checkbox, ideally with 🔑 Rising 50 EMA on.
C · The band becomes support
FB SupportPrice clears the FB High, then comes back and settles on the band it broke through. Resistance turned support. What you want to see is compression: a tight range sitting on the level, volume drying up, often a TTM Squeeze right on top of it. The entry is when price starts moving up out of that compression, not while it is still drifting — and the level itself is where the stop goes, which is why this setup gives a second chance at a trade the breakout already ran away from.
Scan: FB Support checkbox. Add the TTM Squeeze filter to find the compressed ones.
How to trade it
The Fresh Bull day is never itself the trade. It marks a level and puts a coin on your watchlist. The trade is a later daily close above the Fresh Bull day's high — the close that shows other buyers agree with the first one. Without it, you have a volume spike and a hope.
The rules
- Entry
- A daily CLOSE above the FB day's high — not an intraday poke. In a pause that has run over a week, an alternative entry is the bounce when the 10/20 EMA catches up to price.
- Stop
- Below the pause-range low for a pause entry, or below the FB day's low for a breakout entry. If price closes back below the FB high after breaking out, the thesis is weakening — that is what the Pulled Back section on the monitor tracks.
- Prefer
- A narrow area of interest (the FB close finishing within a few percent of the FB high), DCR 70+ rather than a bare 50, a rising 50 EMA, a quiet pause on shrinking volume, and BTC RISK ON.
- Avoid
- A blow-off Fresh Bull day — one that gained 35%+ and closed far below its own high. The level ends up so far overhead that price rarely gets back to it. Also skip volume spikes that came from bad news (hack, delisting, dump-and-reverse) and anything in a RISK OFF market.
- Exits
- Have one before you enter. The median move after a breakout close is meaningful but it does not last: a position held blind for a few weeks typically gives most of it back. Take something into strength.
Don't trade this filter on its own
A Fresh Bull tells you unusual demand arrived on one day. It says nothing about the trend, the market regime, the quality of the level, or your risk-reward. Stack it with 🔑 Rising 50 EMA for trend and the Breadth page for regime, and always look at the chart and the news before acting.
What the data says
Every rule on this page is checkable, so we checked them. Across 6,576 Fresh Bulls on 605 coins between 17 Aug 2017 and 25 Aug 2026:
- 60% went on to close above the Fresh Bull high within 30 days — the rest never gave an entry at all.
- Of those that did, the median wait was 3 days and 78% triggered inside 10.
- The median Fresh Bull ran on 2.8× the previous 10-day peak, and the median run after a breakout close was +14.9% over the following 10 days.
The width of the area of interest is the strongest tell
How far the Fresh Bull high sits above the Fresh Bull close — the band you would draw on the chart. It is also, exactly, how far price has to travel to trigger.
| Band width (FB high above FB close) | Events | Later closed above FB high | Median 10-day run |
|---|---|---|---|
| under 2% | 1,009 | 75.0% | +11.3% |
| 2–5% | 1,915 | 69.8% | +13.8% |
| 5–10% | 1,965 | 57.8% | +15.3% |
| 10–20% | 1,294 | 44.7% | +20.5% |
| 20%+ | 393 | 34.6% | +28.1% |
A Fresh Bull that closes within 2% of its high gives an entry 75.0% of the time; one that closes more than 20% below its high manages 34.6%. This is not just the size of the day in disguise — band width separates outcomes inside every gain bucket, and it correlates with the outcome roughly twice as strongly (-0.246) as the day's gain (-0.139) or its DCR (+0.163).
Bigger Fresh Bull days are worse odds
| How much the FB day itself gained | Events | Later closed above FB high | Median 10-day run |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 2,278 | 67.6% | +11.8% |
| 10–20% | 2,031 | 61.2% | +14.5% |
| 20–35% | 1,261 | 54.9% | +18.7% |
| 35–60% | 689 | 50.4% | +23.7% |
| 60%+ | 317 | 38.5% | +30.1% |
The intuition runs backwards here. A quiet +5% Fresh Bull is nearly twice as likely to hand you an entry as a +60% one, because the huge day sets its high so far above everything that price rarely gets back over it. The rare survivors of the big-gain buckets pay more when they work — which is a different argument from being more likely to work.
DCR 50 is the floor, not the target
| DCR of the FB day | Events | Later closed above FB high | Median 10-day run |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–70 | 3,362 | 53.1% | +16.2% |
| 70–85 | 1,912 | 64.7% | +13.8% |
| 85–100 | 1,256 | 71.6% | +13.8% |
The rule requires DCR ≥ 50, but the bottom band does noticeably worse than the rest. Treat a Fresh Bull that scraped in at DCR 50–70 as second class.
How to read these numbers
A study of the signal, not a backtest of a tradeable system — daily closes only, no fees or slippage, and every entry assumed taken. “Median 10-day run” is the best move price offered after the breakout close, not a result you would have captured without an exit rule.
Spot USDT pairs on Binance and Bybit — including 12 that have since stopped trading — from 17 Aug 2017 to 25 Aug 2026, 774,564 daily bars, same rules and thresholds as the live pipeline. Recomputed 30 Aug 2026.
When it fails
Four in ten Fresh Bulls never give an entry, and the ones that fail worst tend to look the most exciting on the day. Here is the shape to recognise.
- The blow-off. A huge gain on a wide band, often the second or third parabolic day. The rules pass; the level is unreachable.
- The bad-news spike. Hacks, delisting announcements, and news-driven dumps that reverse hard enough to close green all generate the volume without the demand. The pattern cannot tell the difference — you have to look.
- The wrong market. Fresh Bulls fired into a RISK OFF regime break down far more often. Check the Breadth page first.
- The thin book. On a low-liquidity pair, 2× the 10-day peak can be a single large order. Sort by volume and check the coin actually trades.
- The dead bar. DCR falls back to 50 when a candle has no range at all, so a flat placeholder bar can technically pass the closing-range test. The pipeline clears pattern flags on bars with no trading, but it is worth knowing why that guard exists.
Scan recipes
Ready-made filter combinations on the Screener — each takes under a minute to set up.
Fresh Bulls today
- 1Fresh Bull Volume card → set the Days since FB slider to 0–0
- 2Sort by Volume (default) — heaviest institutional interest first
→ Every coin that printed a Fresh Bull on the last completed candle.
Pause-move watchlist
- 1Moving Average card → 🔑 Rising 50 EMA on
- 2Fresh Bull Volume card → FB Pause Move on
→ Uptrending coins resting just below their breakout level — the classic pre-breakout state.
Support reclaim
- 1Fresh Bull Volume card → FB Support on
- 2Optionally add 🔑 Rising 50 EMA to demand trend
→ Coins holding above the FB high — the breakout being accepted.
At the trigger
- 1Days since FB slider → 1 to 10
- 2Away from FB Day High % slider → −3 to +3
→ Recent Fresh Bulls sitting right on the level, either side of it. A tighter band than the −5/+5 the lifecycle filters use, for when you want only the ones about to resolve.
For the live trigger itself, watch FB Breakouts Today on the Realtime Alerts page — it fires the moment a Fresh Bull from the last 7 days crosses its FB high intraday.
On the Screener
- The Fresh Bull badge appears in the Patterns column on the day the signal fires; the Fresh Bull Vol checkbox in the Fresh Bull Volume filter card shows only those coins.
- Days since FB slider — filter by how recent the Fresh Bull is (0 = the last completed candle). The same value is available as an optional table column via the columns icon.
- Away from FB Day High % slider — where price sits versus the FB High: negative = still below the breakout level, positive = already above it.
- FB Pause Move and FB Support checkboxes select the two lifecycle setups directly.
The live monitor — Fresh Bull Analysis
The Fresh Bull Analysis page tracks every Fresh Bull from the last 7 days against its FB High, with prices updating every 15 seconds. Click any card to open its TradingView chart. Coins move between four sections automatically:
- Fresh Bull Today — detected live today from the alerts feed.
- Breaking Out Now — trading above the FB High right now, strongest first.
- Pulled Back — broke out earlier but has slipped back below the FB High.
- Waiting to Break — still below the FB High; the progress bar fills as price approaches the breakout level.
Live detection & caveats
- The Realtime Alerts page detects Fresh Bulls on the live, still-forming candle and flags FB Breakouts Today the moment a recent Fresh Bull crosses its FB High.
- An intraday Fresh Bull is provisional: if volume pace fades or the close drops into the lower half of the range, the coin is removed from the list before the candle completes. Only the daily close confirms the signal — and the entry is a daily close too, so there is nothing lost by waiting.
- Our up-day test is close > open. The stock-market original this pattern is adapted from uses close > previous close, which selects a slightly different set of candles. We keep close > open so the badge agrees with the candle you see on the chart.
- Volume can spike for bad reasons too. The pattern finds unusual demand — always check the chart and the news before acting. Nothing on this page is financial advice.